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Limited reports concerning indirect fire attack against Taji Military Complex

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At approximately 02:00 on 1 September, two likely 107mm rockets impacted an area near the US facility at Taji Military Complex, located north of Baghdad. No casualties or damages were reported. Sirens were sounded at the joint ISF-CF military base as part of routine responses. National and international media attention concerning this incident was notably absent. In addition, no official statements from Iraqi or CF officials were initially reported. This lack of associated reporting is initially indicative of established efforts to downplay this attack so as not to further exacerbate regional tensions.

Despite this lack of reporting and no claim of responsibility, such activity is a likely reflection of the current increased regional tensions between the US and Iran and its proxy Shi’a militias. Recent tensions preceding the 1 September attack were exacerbated by a series of suspected Israeli airstrikes against PMF bases in Iraq, as well as an Iranian proxy near the Syrian border in western Anbar province on 25 August. In response to these suspected airstrikes and possible US complicity, Iranian-backed Kataib Hezbollah threatened to target US installations if explosions at PMF bases continued.

The 1 September indirect fire attack forms the first incident against US interests following the series of suspected Israeli airstrikes. Given current tensions, further attacks of this nature against CF and US interests are somewhat likely in the short-term. As previously discussed, this includes an elevated potential for statement-type indirect fire attacks against the US Embassy in Baghdad, and bases with US and other CF personnel, particularly in central and northern Iraq. However, the very limited reporting surrounding this incident poses enduring challenges in confirming additional attacks along these lines.

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