Credible local sources confirmed the previously reported direct fire incident which involved one individual shooting and killing 12 relatives and wounding one other in an area northwest of Baghdad on 7 August. The source added that the gunman was under the influence of narcotics at the time of the attack. Beyond IS-authored attacks, this incident forms the deadliest shooting in Baghdad in recent history. An exceptionally lethal incident stemming from a personal or family dispute is most likely in this instance, conditions which were exacerbated by the reported abuse of narcotics. As such, this incident forms an outlier in established patterns and trends associated with direct fire activity, with no significant changes to the threat posed to client operations as a result.
Other direct fire activity included a lethal tribal shooting. On the afternoon of 8 August, a tribal clash was reported in the Arab Jobur area of Dora, located south of Baghdad. Unnamed security sources cited that as many as nine individuals were killed, and four others were wounded. Security forces responded to the incident and deployed to the affected area, with no arrests initially reported. An investigation into the incident was immediately commissioned, with initial reports suggesting a land ownership dispute motivated the clash. Further refinements are possible as additional reporting and confirmation from official sources are released.
As of this writing, this incident forms the deadliest tribal clash in Baghdad in recent history and underlines the level of violence that can be witnessed following a local dispute. As a result, significant security operations and mediation efforts are likely to materialize over the near-term to mitigate the potential for further clashes. Nevertheless, operations are advised to remain aware that additional flareups in violence are possible in accordance with established patterns, particularly during the evening and early morning hours.